3 papers
math.ST2026
On equitable scoring functions and optimal forecasting behaviour
Robert J. Taggart, Nicholas Loveday
Equitable scoring functions have a long history in meteorological forecast verification and have recently gained renewed prominence through the use of the Stable Equitable Error in…
math.ST2026
On the evaluation of time-to-event, survival time and first passage time forecasts
Robert J. Taggart, Nicholas Loveday, Simon Louis
Time-to-event forecasts are essential when decisions depend on event timing. This article develops a framework for evaluating such forecasts when the event has not yet occurred or…
stat.AP2025
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
Robert J. Taggart, David J. Wilke
Risk matrices are widely used across a range of fields and have found increasing utility in warning decision practices globally. However, their application in this context presents…