3 papers
cs.GT2025
Robust forecast aggregation via additional queries
Rafael Frongillo, Mary Monroe, Eric Neyman +1
We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying inform…
cs.GT2025
Peer Prediction with More Signals than Reports
Rafael Frongillo, Ian Kash, Mary Monroe
Peer prediction mechanisms are typically proposed and analyzed under the assumption that the report and signal spaces are identical. In practice, however, agents often observe rich…
cs.LG2024
Hedging and Approximate Truthfulness in Traditional Forecasting Competitions
Mary Monroe, Anish Thilagar, Melody Hsu +1
In forecasting competitions, the traditional mechanism scores the predictions of each contestant against the outcome of each event, and the contestant with the highest total score…