8 papers · 1 filter
Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility
Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao +6
While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs). Even…
Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables
Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova +9
In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load;…
Zero-shot Forecasting by Simulation Alone
Boris N. Oreshkin, Mayank Jauhari, Ravi Kiran Selvam +10
Zero-shot time-series forecasting holds great promise, but is still in its infancy, hindered by limited and biased data corpora, leakage-prone evaluation, and privacy and licensing…
A More Realistic Evaluation of Cross-Frequency Transfer Learning and Foundation Forecasting Models
Kin G. Olivares, Malcolm Wolff, Tatiana Konstantinova +8
Cross-frequency transfer learning (CFTL) has emerged as a popular framework for curating large-scale time series datasets to pre-train foundation forecasting models (FFMs). Althoug…
SPADE-S: A Sparsity-Robust Foundational Forecaster
Malcolm Wolff, Matthew Li, Ravi Kiran Selvam +11
Despite significant advancements in time series forecasting, accurate modeling of time series with strong heterogeneity in magnitude and/or sparsity patterns remains challenging fo…
SPADE Split Peak Attention DEcomposition
Malcolm Wolff, Kin G. Olivares, Boris Oreshkin +8
Demand forecasting faces challenges induced by Peak Events (PEs) corresponding to special periods such as promotions and holidays. Peak events create significant spikes in demand f…