48 citations · 56 across the 21 of their papers we have counts for
22 papers
Debt relief and remittances can offset foreign aid cuts for most countries, but some remain locked out
Andrea Vismara, Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Rosie Hayward
In 2025, bilateral foreign aid was reduced by 23%, affecting more than 130 aid recipient countries. We assess whether debt service relief or remittance increases can match the USD…
Conflict, mobility and fragmentation in the African interurban network
Andrew Renninger, Valentina Marin, Carmen Cabrera +1
Roads make regional integration possible, but they also concentrate risk. When violence reaches a corridor that carries regional movement, the consequences can extend beyond the at…
An Agent-Based Model for Migration Decision-Making Under Higher Frequency of Extreme Climate Events
Valentina Antonaccio Guedes, Rafael Prieto-Curiel
This paper develops an agent-based model of climate-related human migration that links repeated environmental shocks to individual migration decision-making through the joint evolu…
Who burdens the welfare state? Migration and ageing in housing, education, and healthcare demand
Guillermo Prieto-Viertel, Carsten Källner, Elma Dervic +3
Political discourse attributes the pressure on European welfare systems to foreign nationals. Yet projections of service demand rarely disaggregate service demand by citizenship st…
Why Locking Up Cartel Members Does not Work
Rafael Prieto-Curiel
One of the core strategies to reduce cartel violence is by directly targeting members with law enforcement. Whether targeting leaders, disrupting parts of the organisation, or inca…
Migrants as First Responders: A Global Estimate of Disaster-Driven Remittances
Andrea Vismara, Ola Ali, Carsten Källner +2
International remittances represent a vital source of disaster adaptation finance for households around the world, yet their responsiveness to environmental disasters remains poorl…
Arriving Young, Leaving Old(er): Age-Structured International Migration on Subnational Scale in Austria
Carsten Källner, Ola Ali, Andrea Vismara +2
Modelling migration is complicated, as people move for many reasons. Some leave their country for the first time, others return to places they once called home, or move on to new d…
Metros reduce car use in European cities but trams do not
Rafael Prieto-Curiel
Despite the evident drawbacks, car ownership and usage continue to rise globally, leading to increased pollution and urban sprawl. As alternatives, Active Mobility and Public Trans…
Scaling and Population Loss in Mexican Urban Centres
Gonzalo G. Peraza-Mues, Eugen Resendiz, Rodolfo Figueroa-Soriano +2
Despite its pervasive implications, many cities worldwide continue to expand in a fragmented, horizontal manner. We analyse urban growth dynamics in 69 Mexican metropolitan areas f…
Reducing Cartel Violence: The Mexican Dilemma Between Social and Security Spending
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Dieter Grass, Stefan Wrzaczek +3
Organised crime in Mexico threatens societal stability and public safety, driving pervasive violence and economic disruption. Despite security investments and social programs desig…
What is the best shape of a city
Tobias Batik, Guillermo Prieto-Viertel, Jiaqi Liang +3
Urban form plays a crucial role in shaping transportation patterns, accessibility, energy consumption, and more. Our study examines the relationship between urban form and transpor…
Modeling Urban Population Dynamics and City-to-City Migration
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Carmen Cabrera-Arnau
Migration plays a crucial role in urban growth. Over time, individuals opting to relocate led to vast metropolises like London and Paris during the Industrial Revolution, Shanghai…
The gravity model for social systems
Rafael Prieto-Curiel
Gravity is one of the most prominent models used across various social areas, including economics, demography, mobility, politics, and other systems where spatial interactions are…
Mapping urban segregation through co-residence network reconstruction
Marc Sadurní, Samuel Martin-Gutierrez, Ola Ali +3
Urban segregation poses a critical challenge for cities, exacerbating inequalities, social tensions, fears, and polarisation. It emerges from the interplay of socio-economic dispar…
Observing cities as a complex system
Rafael Prieto-Curiel
Cities are some of the most intricate and advanced creations of humanity. Most objects in cities are perfectly synchronised to coordinate activities such as jobs, education, transp…
Geographical Isolation as a Driver of Political Violence in African Cities
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Ronaldo Menezes
Violence is commonly linked with large urban areas, and as a social phenomenon, it is presumed to scale super-linearly with population size. This study explores the hypothesis that…
Urban Sprawl Is Associated with Reduced Access and Increased Costs of Water and Sanitation
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Pavel Luengas-Sierra, Christian Borja-Vega
Many cities are expanding in areas with scarce rainfall and limited water retention capacity, and are also becoming elongated and sprawled, making it harder to deliver services. Th…
How international research teams respond to disruption in their mobility patterns
Olivier J. Walther, Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Erica Odera
Combining social network analysis with personal interviews, the paper examines how the social structure and internal composition of three Africa-focused international research netw…
The diaspora model for human migration
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Ola Ali, Elma Dervic +5
Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants…
Detecting the sensitive spots of the African interurban transport network
Andrew Renninger, Valentina Marín Maureira, Carmen Cabrera-Arnau +1
Transport systems are vulnerable to disruption. This is particularly true in Africa, where there are large areas with few highways and heightened risk of violence. Here we attempt…
Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Gian Maria Campedelli, Alejandro Hope
Every year, Mexican cartels lose many members due to conflict with other cartels and arrests. Yet, despite their losses, cartels have managed to increase violence for years. We add…
Large cities are less efficient for sustainable transport: The ABC of mobility
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Juan P. Ospina
The use of cars in cities has many negative impacts on its population, including pollution, noise and the use of space. Yet, detecting factors that reduce automobile dependency is…