3 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
John S. Schreck, William Chapman, Charlie Becker +1
We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1° grid spacing) to estimate c…
physics.data-an2026
Toward a Scientific Discovery Engine for Weather and Climate Data: A Visual Analytics Workbench for Embedding-Based Exploration
Nihanth W. Cherukuru, Matt Rehme, Kirsten J. Mayer +4
Earth system science is producing increasingly large, high-dimensional datasets from both physics-based and AI-driven models. While embedding-based representations make these data…
cs.LG2025
Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layers
John S. Schreck, William E. Chapman, Charlie Becker +6
AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predic…