11 papers
Modal Exchangeability: Centered Symmetry and the Credal Architecture of Kripke Frames
Daniel Zantedeschi
We ask what happens when the index set carries modal structure, with possibilities organized into a Kripke frame. We define modal exchangeability as invariance under accessibility-…
Mini-Batch Covariance, Diffusion Limits, and Oracle Complexity in Stochastic Gradient Descent: A Sampling-Design Perspective
Daniel Zantedeschi, Kumar Muthuraman
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is central to simulation optimization, stochastic programming, and online M-estimation, where sampling effort is a decision variable. We study the…
Horseshoe Priors and MDP
Nick Polson, Vadim Sokolov, Daniel Zantedeschi
Carvalho (2010) established two foundational theorems for the horseshoe prior: tight two-sided logarithmic bounds on the marginal density near the origin (Theorem~1.1), and a super…
E-Values, Bayes Risk, Dual Role of Markov's Inequality
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
Two approaches to hypothesis testing, e-value testing and Bayes risk minimisation, both invoke Markov's inequality to control error probabilities. They differ in which distribution…
Bell's Inequality, Causal Bounds, and Quantum Bayesian Computation: A Unified Framework
Nick Polson, Vadim Sokolov, Daniel Zantedeschi
Bell inequalities characterize the boundary of the local-realist correlation polytope -- the set of joint probability distributions achievable by classical hidden-variable models.…
Kakeya Conjecture and Conditional Kolmogorov Complexity
Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel Zantedeschi
This paper develops an information-theoretic framework for algorithmic complexity under regular identifiable fibering. The central question is: when a decoder is given information…