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stat.AP2026
Sequential Certification of Threshold Decisions in Rare-Event Risk Prediction
Hui-Mean Foo, Yuan-chin Ivan Chang
Rare clinical outcomes pose a difficulty deeper than ordinary class imbalance: a penalized logistic model can return finite, stable-looking coefficients before the data support a r…
stat.AP2026
Coupling Precipitation Forecasting and Early Warning with Reverse-Martingale Recurrent Neural Networks
Hui-Mean Foo, Yuan-chin Ivan Chang
Precipitation forecasts are judged by accuracy, but the decisions they support -- when to restrict water, when to warn of drought -- turn on noticing when a local regime is becomin…
stat.AP2026
Small-Area Precipitation Forecasting and Drought--Flood Early Warning with Reverse-Martingale Regularized Recurrent Networks
Foo Hui-Mean, Yuan-chin Ivan Chang
Small-area precipitation forecasts support real-time decisions for reservoir operation, irrigation planning, drought monitoring, and flash-flood response. Operational value depends…