6 papers
A Markov Chain Approach to Modeling Rugby Union
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón
Rugby Union's continuous play, variable-length possessions, and multiple scoring outcomes make it difficult to model with standard approaches. We present a Markov Chain framework t…
Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…
Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Protection and Pass Rush
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Maximilian Gebauer, Victoria Lee +2
Evaluating NFL pass protectors and rushers is difficult because observed win rates reflect both player performance and the difficulty of the blocking assignments each player faces.…
A Unified Server Quality Metric for Tennis
Aiwen Li, Amrita Balajee, Harry Wieand +1
Traditional tennis rating systems (e.g., Elo) summarize overall player strength but do not isolate the independent value of serving. Using point-by-point data from Wimbledon and th…
Kicking for Goal or Touch? An Expected Points Framework for Penalty Decisions in Rugby Union
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón
Following a penalty in rugby union, teams typically choose between attempting a shot at goal or kicking to touch to pursue a try. We develop an Expected Points (EP) framework that…
The Blown Lead Paradox: A Pathwise Calibration Benchmark for Win Probability Forecasts
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Live win probabilities have given sports collapses a common numerical language: the highest win probability attained by the team that eventually lost. Yet this familiar number is a…