5 papers
Long Memory in Intrinsically Dynamic Factor Models
Qin Wen, Clifford M. Hurvich
We study the generalized dynamic factor model in a long-memory setting. Unlike most recent work, which assumes a finite-dimensional factor space and short memory, our framework all…
Deep Time-Series Forecasting in 10 Years: A Survey
Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Qingsong Wen +12
Autocorrelation is a common property of time-series, where each observation is dependent on its predecessors. In deep time-series forecasting, it raises two central challenges: (1)…
Deep Time-series Forecasting Needs Kernelized Moment Balancing
Licheng Pan, Hao Wang, Haocheng Yang +12
Deep time-series forecasting can be formulated as a distribution balancing problem aimed at aligning the distribution of the forecasts and ground truths. According to Imbens' crite…
Quadratic Direct Forecast for Training Multi-Step Time-Series Forecast Models
Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Yuan Lu +7
The design of learning objectives is central to training time-series forecasting models. Existing learning objectives such as mean squared error mostly treat each future step as an…
DistDF: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Joint-Distribution Wasserstein Alignment
Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Yuan Lu +7
Training time-series forecasting models requires aligning the conditional distribution of model forecasts with that of the label sequence. The standard direct forecast (DF) approac…