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20242026
most citedNumerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes

2 citations · 4 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

6 papers

math.ST2026

A Kullback-Leibler divergence test for multivariate extremes: theory and practice

Sebastian Engelke, Philippe Naveau, Chen Zhou

Testing whether two multivariate samples exhibit the same extremal behavior is an important problem in various fields including environmental and climate sciences. While several ad…

stat.ME2026

Graph structure learning for stable processes

Florian Brück, Sebastian Engelke, Stanislav Volgushev

We introduce Ising-Hüsler-Reiss processes, a new class of multivariate Lévy processes that allows for sparse modeling of the path-wise conditional independence structure between ma…

stat.ME2025

Intrinsic Whittle--Matérn fields and sparse spatial extremes

David Bolin, Peter Braunsteins, Sebastian Engelke +1

Intrinsic Gaussian fields are used in many areas of statistics as models for spatial or spatio-temporal dependence, or as priors for latent variables. However, there are two major…

physics.ao-ph20252 cited

Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes

Zhongwei Zhang, Erich Fischer, Jakob Zscheischler +1

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. Howeve…

stat.ME2025

Extreme Conformal Prediction: Reliable Intervals for High-Impact Events

Olivier C. Pasche, Henry Lam, Sebastian Engelke

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentiall…

stat.ME20242 cited

Progression: an extrapolation principle for regression

Gloria Buriticá, Sebastian Engelke

The problem of regression extrapolation, or out-of-distribution generalization, arises when predictions are required at test points outside the range of the training data. In such…