most citedLLMs are Overconfident: Evaluating Confidence Interval Calibration with FermiEval

1 citations · 1 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

9 papers

econ.TH2026

Very Credible Auction

Thanawat Sornwanee

We introduce a notion and motivation for very credible auctions. This is a strengthening in the commitment in the credible auctions setting, making it more suitable for a modern di…

math.ST2026

Full Conformal Prediction under Stochastic Non-Conformity Measure

Thanawat Sornwanee

The theory of full conformal prediction uses deterministic non-conformity measure, but modern usage of full conformal prediction often relies on machine learning training, making s…

cs.LG2026

ABC: Any-Subset Autoregression via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space

Gabe Guo, Thanawat Sornwanee, Lutong Hao +3

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundament…

cs.LG2026

Unbiased Single-Queried Gradient for Combinatorial Objective

Thanawat Sornwanee

In a probabilistic reformulation of a combinatorial problem, we often face an optimization over a hypercube, which corresponds to the Bernoulli probability parameter for each binar…

cs.DL2026

Allocate Marginal Reviews to Borderline Papers Using LLM Comparative Ranking

Elliot L. Epstein, Rajat Dwaraknath, John Winnicki +1

This paper argues that large ML conferences should allocate marginal review capacity primarily to papers near the acceptance boundary, rather than spreading extra reviews via rando…

math.OC2026

Differentiable Integer Linear Programming is not Differentiable & it's not a mere technical problem

Thanawat Sornwanee

We show how the differentiability method employed in the paper ``Differentiable Integer Linear Programming'', Geng, et al., 2025 as shown in its theorem 5 is incorrect. Moreover, t…

stat.ME2025★ 1 cited

LLMs are Overconfident: Evaluating Confidence Interval Calibration with FermiEval

Elliot L. Epstein, John Winnicki, Thanawat Sornwanee +1

Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own an…

econ.TH2025

1-Dimensional Normal Competitive Market Equilibrium

Thanawat Sornwanee

We introduce a new microeconomics foundation of a specific type of competitive market equilibrium that can be used to study several markets with information asymmetry such as commo…

cs.LG2025

SD-KDE: Score-Debiased Kernel Density Estimation

Elliot L. Epstein, Rajat Dwaraknath, Thanawat Sornwanee +2

We propose a novel method for density estimation that leverages an estimated score function to debias kernel density estimation (SD-KDE). In our approach, each data point is adjust…