activity
20242026
collaborators

6 papers

math.ST2026

On micromodes in Bayesian posterior distributions and their implications for MCMC

Sanket Agrawal, Sebastiano Grazzi, Gareth O. Roberts

We investigate the existence and severity of local modes in posterior distributions from Bayesian analyses. These are known to occur in posterior tails resulting from heavy-tailed…

math.PR2025

Central Limit Theorem for ergodic averages of Markov chains \& the comparison of sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed distributions

Miha Brešar, Aleksandar Mijatović, Gareth Roberts

Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478…

stat.CO2025

Transient regime of piecewise deterministic Monte Carlo algorithms

Sanket Agrawal, Joris Bierkens, Kengo Kamatani +1

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) such as the Bouncy Particle Sampler and the Zig-Zag Sampler, have gained attention as continuous-time counterparts of classical Mar…

stat.ME2025

Non-centering for discrete-valued state transition models: an application to ESBL-producing E. coli transmission in Malawi

James Neill, Rebecca Lester, Winnie Bakali +4

Infectious disease transmission is often modelled by discrete-valued stochastic state-transition processes. Due to a lack of complete data, Bayesian inference for these models ofte…

stat.CO2025

Exact Bayesian inference for Markov switching diffusions

Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, Krzysztof Łatuszyński, Jan Palczewski +1

We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusio…

stat.CO2024

Large sample scaling analysis of the Zig-Zag algorithm for Bayesian inference

Sanket Agrawal, Joris Bierkens, Gareth O. Roberts

Piecewise deterministic Markov processes provide scalable methods for sampling from the posterior distributions in big data settings by admitting principled sub-sampling strategies…