activity
20242026
collaborators

9 papers

stat.CO2026

Neural Inference Functions for Margins for Time Series Copula Models

Daniel Fynn, David Gunawan, Andrew Zammit-Mangion

Copula models are widely employed in multivariate time series analysis because they permit flexible modelling of marginal distributions independently of the dependence structure, w…

econ.EM2026

Flexible Bayesian Models for Time-Varying Income Distributions

David Gunawan

Survey data are widely used to study how income inequality, poverty, and welfare evolve over time. A common practice is to estimate the income distribution separately for each year…

stat.ME2025

Bayesian Inference for Non-Gaussian Simultaneous Autoregressive Models with Missing Data

Anjana Wijayawardhana, David Gunawan, Thomas Suesse

Standard simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models typically assume normally distributed errors, an assumption often violated in real-world datasets that frequently exhibit non-norm…

stat.AP2025

Neural posterior inference with state-space models for calibrating ice sheet simulators

Bao Anh Vu, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, David Gunawan +2

Ice sheet models are routinely used to quantify and project an ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. In order for an ice sheet model to generate realistic projections, its pa…

stat.ME2025

Bayesian copula-based spatial random effects models for inference with complex spatial data

Alan Pearse, David Gunawan, Noel Cressie

In this article, we develop fully Bayesian, copula-based, spatial-statistical models for large, noisy, incomplete, and non-Gaussian spatial data. Our approach includes novel constr…

stat.CO2025

Recursive variational Gaussian approximation with the Whittle likelihood for linear non-Gaussian state space models

Bao Anh Vu, David Gunawan, Andrew Zammit-Mangion

Parameter inference for linear and non-Gaussian state space models is challenging because the likelihood function contains an intractable integral over the latent state variables.…