2 papers
econ.EM2026
Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy
Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani +1
Central banks monitor macroeconomic risk through two traditions: scenario analysis, regularly used since the mid-1990s, and distributional forecasting, practiced since the late 196…
econ.EM2025
Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk
Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani +1
We introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses th…