7 papers
Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series
Yannick Limmer
Joint prediction sets for multivariate time series should control a single event while adapting to cross-coordinate dependence. We study filtered conformal ellipsoids: a frozen sta…
PIVOT: Bridging Black-Scholes Implied-Volatility and Price Objectives via Differentiable Jäckel Operator
Raeid Saqur, Yannick Limmer, Anastasis Kratsios +2
Modern option-learning systems operate in two coordinates: price space, where markets quote and no-arbitrage constraints are most naturally enforced, and implied volatility (IV) sp…
SANOS Smooth strictly Arbitrage-free Non-parametric Option Surfaces
Hans Buehler, Blanka Horvath, Anastasis Kratsios +2
We present a simple, numerically efficient but highly flexible non-parametric method to construct representations of option price surfaces which are both smooth and strictly arbitr…
Transformers Can Solve Non-Linear and Non-Markovian Filtering Problems in Continuous Time For Conditionally Gaussian Signals
Blanka Horvath, Anastasis Kratsios, Yannick Limmer +1
The use of attention-based deep learning models in stochastic filtering, e.g. transformers and deep Kalman filters, has recently come into focus; however, the potential for these m…
Uncertainty-Aware Strategies: A Model-Agnostic Framework for Robust Financial Optimization through Subsampling
Hans Buehler, Blanka Horvath, Yannick Limmer +1
This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating…
Filtered not Mixed: Stochastic Filtering-Based Online Gating for Mixture of Large Language Models
Raeid Saqur, Anastasis Kratsios, Florian Krach +5
We propose MoE-F - a formalized mechanism for combining pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for online time-series prediction by adaptively forecasting the best weighting…