4 papers
Exceedance Probabilities for Large Earthquakes From DIY Local Earthquake Ensemble Nowcasting and Forecasting
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a def…
Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughmann, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS <…
From Local Earthquake Nowcasting to Natural Time Forecasting: A Simple Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +2
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "coun…
Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting
Alireza Jafari, Geoffrey Fox, John B. Rundle +2
Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities remains a crucial and enduring objective aimed at reducing casualties. This mul…