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Assessing the Optimistic Bias in the Natural Inflow Forecasts: A Call for Model Monitoring in Brazil
Arthur Brigatto, Alexandre Street, Cristiano Fernandes +3
Hydroelectricity accounted for roughly 61.4% of Brazil's total generation in 2024 and addressed most of the intermittency of wind and solar generation. Thus, inflow forecasting pla…
Time Series Analysis by State Space Learning
André Ramos, Davi Valladão, Alexandre Street
Time series analysis by state-space models is widely used in forecasting and extracting unobservable components like level, slope, and seasonality, along with explanatory variables…
Efficiently Training Deep-Learning Parametric Policies using Lagrangian Duality
Andrew Rosemberg, Alexandre Street, Davi M. Valladão +1
Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are critical in many high-stakes applications, where decisions must optimize cumulative rewards while strictly adhering to complex non…