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stat.AP2025
Mortality Modeling and Forecasting with the Actuaries Climate Index
Karim Barigou, Melanie Patten, Kenneth Q. Zhou
Climate change poses increasing challenges for mortality modeling and underscores the need to integrate climate-related variables into mortality forecasting. This study introduces…
stat.AP2025
A penalized distributed lag non-linear Lee-Carter framework for regional weekly mortality forecasting
Jens Robben, Karim Barigou
Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- an…
stat.AP2025★ 1 cited
Granular mortality modeling with temperature and epidemic shocks: a three-state regime-switching approach
Jens Robben, Karim Barigou, Torsten Kleinow
This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework featu…