11 papers
Tail Dependence in EU Carbon Markets: Graphical Models of Extremes for EUA Futures
Jan Maciejowski, Manuele Leonelli
Understanding how extreme price movements propagate across financial and energy markets is critical for risk management and regulatory design in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU…
Crashing Together, Rallying Apart: Dynamic Conditional Tail Dependence in Cryptocurrency Markets
Rama Siva Sarwari Mallela, Manuele Leonelli
Cryptocurrency markets are prone to violent, synchronised drawdowns, challenging the claim that a basket of crypto-assets offers genuine internal diversification. Because standard…
Beyond Post-hoc Explanation: Toward Glassbox AI via Probabilistic Mediation
Manuele Leonelli
Large language models are rapidly becoming infrastructural components in high-stakes institutional settings, including public administration, legal reasoning, and healthcare, where…
Estimating Staged Event Tree Models via Hierarchical Clustering on the Simplex
Muhammad Shoaib, Eva Riccomagno, Manuele Leonelli +1
Staged tree models enhance Bayesian networks by incorporating context-specific dependencies through a stage-based structure. In this study, we present a new framework for estimatin…
Bayesian Causal Effect Estimation for Categorical Data using Staged Tree Models
Andrea Cremaschi, Manuele Leonelli, Gherardo Varando
We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of repre…
Staged Event Trees for Transparent Treatment Effect Estimation
Gherardo Varando, Manuele Leonelli, Jordi Cerdà -Bautista +2
Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical se…