2 citations · 3 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers · 1 filter
Executable Arbitrage and Market Efficiency in Prediction Markets
Jonas Gebele, Timm Mutzel, Florian Matthes
Deterministic payoff identities imply no-arbitrage bounds in winner-takes-all prediction markets, but violations of these bounds need not be exploitable before settlement. We disti…
When Certainty Is Not Worth It: Capital Lock-Up and Settlement Discounting in Prediction Markets
Jonas Gebele, Florian Matthes
Collateralized prediction markets are contingent-claim markets in which economic uncertainty can disappear before winning claims become redeemable. This paper studies the pricing e…
Semantic Non-Fungibility and Violations of the Law of One Price in Prediction Markets
Jonas Gebele, Florian Matthes
Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockcha…
Who Wins Ethereum Block Building Auctions and Why?
Burak Öz, Danning Sui, Thomas Thiery +1
The MEV-Boost block auction contributes approximately 90% of all Ethereum blocks. Between October 2023 and March 2024, only three builders produced 80% of them, highlighting the co…