4 papers
Adaptive COVID-19 Trajectory Forecasting Using MAB-Inspired Ensemble Weighting
Hamed Karami, Javier Redondo Anton, Geunsoo Jang +2
Forecasting epidemic trajectories is important for public health decision-making, but no single model is consistently reliable across epidemic phases and forecasting settings. We e…
Assembling ensembling: An adventure in approaches across disciplines
Amanda Bleichrodt, Sadie J. Ryan, Lydia Bourouiba +4
When discussing model ensembling or ensemble modeling, a term arises across numerous disciplines, what is meant by it can vary drastically. The very meaning of 'ensemble' - a colle…
Parameter uncertainty in dynamical models: a practical identifiability index
Hamed Karami, Alexandra Smirnova, Sunmi Lee +1
Ordinary differential equation models are widely used to understand and forecast complex dynamical systems, but their predictive value depends on reliable parameter estimation. Str…
Cruise Ship-Associated Andes Virus Cluster aboard MV Hondius, 2026: A Stochastic Scenario Analysis
Raj Kumar Subedi, Hamed Karami, Kaustubh Wagh +2
In April 2026, the MV Hondius expedition cruise ship became the site of the first documented cruise ship-associated Andes hantavirus (ANDV) cluster, with 13 confirmed and probable…