7 papers
Adaptive COVID-19 Trajectory Forecasting Using MAB-Inspired Ensemble Weighting
Hamed Karami, Javier Redondo Anton, Geunsoo Jang +2
Forecasting epidemic trajectories is important for public health decision-making, but no single model is consistently reliable across epidemic phases and forecasting settings. We e…
Parameter uncertainty in dynamical models: a practical identifiability index
Hamed Karami, Alexandra Smirnova, Sunmi Lee +1
Ordinary differential equation models are widely used to understand and forecast complex dynamical systems, but their predictive value depends on reliable parameter estimation. Str…
Cruise Ship-Associated Andes Virus Cluster aboard MV Hondius, 2026: A Stochastic Scenario Analysis
Raj Kumar Subedi, Hamed Karami, Kaustubh Wagh +2
In April 2026, the MV Hondius expedition cruise ship became the site of the first documented cruise ship-associated Andes hantavirus (ANDV) cluster, with 13 confirmed and probable…
Comparing Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Biological Models: A Comparative Analysis of Accuracy, Uncertainty, and Identifiability
Mohammed A. Y. Mohammed, Hamed Karami, Gerardo Chowell
Mathematical models support inference and forecasting in ecology and epidemiology, but results depend on the estimation framework. We compare Bayesian and Frequentist approaches ac…
COVID-19 Forecasting from U.S. Wastewater Surveillance Data: A Retrospective Multi-Model Study (2022-2024)
Faharudeen Alhassan, Hamed Karami, Amanda Bleichrodt +4
Accurate and reliable forecasting models are critical for guiding public health responses and policy decisions during pandemics such as COVID-19. Retrospective evaluation of model…
Comparative study of Bayesian and Frequentist methods for epidemic forecasting: Insights from simulated and historical data
Hamed Karami, Ruiyan Luo, Pejman Sanaei +1
Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for effective public health interventions. This study compares Bayesian and Frequentist estimation frameworks within deterministic compart…