collaborators

6 papers

stat.AP2026

The kinematics of global warming: Semiparametric analysis of warming level, rate, and acceleration

Mikkel Bennedsen, J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

Three features of the global warming process are of central scientific interest: its level, its warming rate, and changes in that warming rate. We develop a semiparametric kinemati…

stat.AP2026

Spatial emergence of acceleration in global warming

Tanja Korsten Bugajski, Nicolai Peder Bulow Pedersen, J. Eduardo Vera-Valdes

Whether global warming is accelerating remains contested because internal variability and spatial heterogeneity can obscure changes in warming rates. Here we use a Bayesian hierarc…

stat.ME2026

Global Warming Has Been Accelerating Since At Least 1990

J. Eduardo Vera-Valdes

We investigate acceleration in global temperature, defining acceleration as a supralinear (greater-than-linear) increase over time. We develop a statistical framework to test for s…

stat.AP2026

Explaining the disagreement over a rising airborne fraction

J. Eduardo Vera-Valdes

The airborne fraction, the share of anthropogenic emissions that stays in the atmosphere rather than being absorbed by land and ocean, tracks the carbon cycle's response to…

stat.AP2024

Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds

J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, Olivia Kvist

Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate sci…

stat.AP2024

Robust estimation of carbon dioxide airborne fraction under measurement errors

J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, Charisios Grivas

This paper discusses the effect of measurement errors in the estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO) airborne fraction. We are the first to present regression-based estimates and…