activity
20162026
most citedBayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties' competition

9 citations · 18 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

6 papers

stat.ME2026

Functional Estimation of the Marginal Likelihood

Omiros Papaspiliopoulos, Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, Jonathan Weare

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent…

stat.CO2025

Scalable Bernoulli Factory MCMC for Intractable Marginalised Posteriors

Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, Flávio B. Gonçalves

Bernoulli factory MCMC algorithms implement accept-reject Markov chains without explicit computation of acceptance probabilities, and are used to target posterior distributions ass…

stat.CO2025

Exact Bayesian inference for Markov switching diffusions

Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, Krzysztof Łatuszyński, Jan Palczewski +1

We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusio…

stat.CO2025★ 2 cited

MCMC for multi-modal distributions

Krzysztof Łatuszyński, Matthew T. Moores, Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon

We explain the fundamental challenges of sampling from multimodal distributions, particularly for high-dimensional problems. We present the major types of MCMC algorithms that are…

stat.CO2021★ 7 cited

Scalable Bayesian computation for crossed and nested hierarchical models

Omiros Papaspiliopoulos, Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon, Giacomo Zanella

We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of paramete…

stat.AP2016★ 9 cited

Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties' competition

José García Montalvo, Omiros Papaspiliopoulos, Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon

This paper proposed a methodology to forecast electoral outcomes using the result of the combination of a fundamental model and a model-based aggregation of polls. We propose a Bay…