3 citations · 4 across the 12 of their papers we have counts for
13 papers
Beyond Picking Winners: Correlation-Driven Tail Risk in Venture Capital Portfolio Construction
Yunqi Liang, Hasan Ugur Koyluoglu, Fuat Alican +1
We propose a Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence directly from observed joint success frequencies across founder, geography, and market attributes. Ho…
CoFEE: Reasoning Control for LLM-Based Feature Discovery
Maximilian Westermann, Ben Griffin, Aaron Ontoyin Yin +6
Feature discovery from complex unstructured data is fundamentally a reasoning problem: it requires identifying abstractions that are predictive of a target outcome while avoiding l…
From Stochastic Answers to Verifiable Reasoning: Interpretable Decision-Making with LLM-Generated Code
Anirudh Jaidev Mahesh, Ben Griffin, Fuat Alican +8
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for high-stakes decision-making, yet existing approaches struggle to reconcile scalability, interpretability, and reproducibility…
Probabilistic Modeling of Venture Capital Portfolio Outliers
Kensei Sakamoto, Hasan Ugur Koyluoglu, Fuat Alican +1
In this paper, we define probabilistic measures for venture portfolio performance based on individual outlier probability for each investment and the dependence across investments.…
LLM-AR: LLM-powered Automated Reasoning Framework
Rick Chen, Joseph Ternasky, Aaron Ontoyin Yin +3
Large language models (LLMs) can already identify patterns and reason effectively, yet their variable accuracy hampers adoption in high-stakes decision-making applications. In this…
From Limited Data to Rare-event Prediction: LLM-powered Feature Engineering and Multi-model Learning in Venture Capital
Mihir Kumar, Aaron Ontoyin Yin, Zakari Salifu +4
This paper presents a framework for predicting rare, high-impact outcomes by integrating large language models (LLMs) with a multi-model machine learning (ML) architecture. The app…
VCBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Venture Capital
Rick Chen, Joseph Ternasky, Afriyie Samuel Kwesi +7
Benchmarks such as SWE-bench and ARC-AGI demonstrate how shared datasets accelerate progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). We introduce VCBench, the first benchmark…
Policy Induction: Predicting Startup Success via Explainable Memory-Augmented In-Context Learning
Xianling Mu, Joseph Ternasky, Fuat Alican +1
Early-stage startup investment is a high-risk endeavor characterized by scarce data and uncertain outcomes. Traditional machine learning approaches often require large, labeled dat…
Random Rule Forest (RRF): Interpretable and Manageable Ensembles of LLM-Generated Questions for Predicting Success from Unstructured Data
Ben Griffin, Aaron Ontoyin Yin, Diego Vidaurre +4
Many high-stakes screening tasks require predicting rare outcomes from unstructured text, where errors are costly and decisions must be auditable. We introduce Random Rule Forest (…
Reasoning-Based AI for Startup Evaluation (R.A.I.S.E.): A Memory-Augmented, Multi-Step Decision Framework
Jack Preuveneers, Joseph Ternasky, Fuat Alican +1
We present a novel framework that bridges the gap between the interpretability of decision trees and the advanced reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to predict…
GPT-HTree: A Decision Tree Framework Integrating Hierarchical Clustering and Large Language Models for Explainable Classification
Te Pei, Fuat Alican, Aaron Ontoyin Yin +1
This paper introduces GPT-HTree, a framework combining hierarchical clustering, decision trees, and large language models (LLMs) to address this challenge. By leveraging hierarchic…
GPTree: Towards Explainable Decision-Making via LLM-powered Decision Trees
Sichao Xiong, Yigit Ihlamur, Fuat Alican +1
Traditional decision tree algorithms are explainable but struggle with non-linear, high-dimensional data, limiting its applicability in complex decision-making. Neural networks exc…
SSFF: Investigating LLM Predictive Capabilities for Startup Success through a Multi-Agent Framework with Enhanced Explainability and Performance
Xisen Wang, Yigit Ihlamur, Fuat Alican
LLM based agents have recently demonstrated strong potential in automating complex tasks, yet accurately predicting startup success remains an open challenge with few benchmarks an…