4 papers
Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data
Elizaveta Sivak, Emily M. Cantrell, Thomas Emery +109
Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child w…
Population-Scale Network Embeddings Expose Educational Divides in Network Structure Related to Right-Wing Populist Voting
Malte Lüken, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Sreeparna Deb +2
Administrative registry data can be used to construct population-scale networks whose ties reflect shared social contexts between persons. With machine learning, such networks can…
Beyond Parents? Prediction Gaps in University Completion Using Population-Scale Networks and Flexible Machine Learning
Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Eva Jaspers, Weverthon Machado +2
How predictable is children's educational attainment from the wider social contexts in which they grow up, once parental background is known? Sociological research places household…
Avoiding Overfitting in Variable-Order Markov Models: a Cross-Validation Approach
Valeria Secchini, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, Petr Janský
Higherorder Markov chain models are widely used to represent agent transitions in dynamic systems, such as passengers in transport networks. They capture transitions in c…