4 papers · 1 filter
Distributional Granger Causality: Identification, Sequential Inference, and Adaptive Testing
Ayush Jha
Predictive dependence in time series need not be confined to the conditional mean. Outside the Gaussian setting, causal content may arise through conditional scale, tail behavior,…
Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation
Ayush Jha, Abootaleb Shirvani, Ali Jaffri +2
This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic co…
Advancing Portfolio Optimization: Adaptive Minimum-Variance Portfolios and Minimum Risk Rate Frameworks
Ayush Jha, Abootaleb Shirvani, Ali Jaffri +2
This study presents the Adaptive Minimum-Variance Portfolio (AMVP) framework and the Adaptive Minimum-Risk Rate (AMRR) metric, innovative tools designed to optimize portfolios dyna…
Beyond the Traditional VIX: A Novel Approach to Identifying Uncertainty Shocks in Financial Markets
Ayush Jha, Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar T. Rachev +1
We introduce a new identification strategy for uncertainty shocks to explain macroeconomic volatility in financial markets. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX…