3 papers
q-bio.QM2026
Multi-scale measures of time-varying epidemic spread on human mobility networks
Cathal Mills, Benjamin Reddy, William S. Hart +5
Human movement drives the spatial spread and persistence of many infectious diseases, yet existing theory and real-time operational tools for inferring the instantaneous reproducti…
stat.ME2025
A primer on inference and prediction with epidemic renewal models and sequential Monte Carlo
Nicholas Steyn, Kris V. Parag, Robin N. Thompson +1
Renewal models are widely used in statistical epidemiology as semi-mechanistic models of disease transmission. While primarily used for estimating the instantaneous reproduction nu…
q-bio.PE2025
The time-dependent reproduction number for epidemics in heterogeneous populations
Ioana Bouros, Robin Thompson, David Gavaghan +1
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal…