10 citations · 36 across the 15 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers · 1 filter
Controllable Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Decomposition Layers
John S. Schreck, William E. Chapman, Charlie Becker +6
AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predic…
Winter Precipitation Type Diagnosis and Uncertainty Quantification with a Physically Consistent Machine Learning Method
Charlie Becker, David John Gagne, Julie Demuth +8
Accurately forecasting winter precipitation type and its transitions is critical for high-impact decision making. However, existing methods struggle in thermodynamically ambiguous…
Bayesian Deep Learning for Convective Initiation Nowcasting Uncertainty Estimation
Da Fan, David John Gagne, Steven J. Greybush +3
This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet)…
Reinforcement Learning (RL) Meets Urban Climate Modeling: Investigating the Efficacy and Impacts of RL-Based HVAC Control
Junjie Yu, John S. Schreck, David John Gagne +7
Reinforcement learning (RL)-based heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) control has emerged as a promising technology for reducing building energy consumption while mai…
Improving Medium Range Severe Weather Prediction through Transformer Post-processing of AI Weather Forecasts
Zhanxiang Hua, Ryan Sobash, David John Gagne +2
Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only t…
CAMulator: Fast Emulation of the Community Atmosphere Model
William E. Chapman, John S. Schreck, Yingkai Sha +5
We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state give…
Data-Driven Probabilistic Air-Sea Flux Parameterization
Jiarong Wu, Pavel Perezhogin, David John Gagne +4
Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic f…
Investigating the use of terrain-following coordinates in AI-driven precipitation forecasts
Yingkai Sha, John S. Schreck, William Chapman +1
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce ``blurry'' precipitation forecasts. This study presents a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integ…
Uncertainty Quantification of Wind Gust Predictions in the Northeast United States: An Evidential Neural Network and Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach
Israt Jahan, John S. Schreck, David John Gagne +2
Machine learning algorithms have shown promise in reducing bias in wind gust predictions, while still underpredicting high gusts. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) supports this issu…
Improving AI weather prediction models using global mass and energy conservation schemes
Yingkai Sha, John S. Schreck, William Chapman +1
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate con…