122 citations · 675 across the 42 of their papers we have counts for
48 papers
Estimating Climate Sensitivity Using Bayesian Model Averaging for CMIP Models
Jitong Jiang, Skylar Shi, Adrian E. Raftery
The Transient Climate Response to cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) is a key metric for linking greenhouse gas emissions to global temperature change and informing climate policy. Ho…
Simulation-consistent Estimation of the Marginal Likelihood for Block Models
Martin Metodiev, Marie Perrot-Dockès, Guilhem Fouetillou +2
We propose a methodology for computing marginal likelihoods for block models. The proposed estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples a…
Reversible Jump MCMC With No Regrets: Bayesian Variable Selection Using Mixtures of Mutually Singular Distributions
Don van den Bergh, Merlise A. Clyde, Adrian E. Raftery +1
Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addresse…
Comparing Variable Selection and Model Averaging Methods for Logistic Regression
Nikola Sekulovski, František Bartoš, Don van den Bergh +6
Model uncertainty is a central challenge in statistical models for binary outcomes such as logistic regression, arising when it is unclear which predictors should be included in th…
Easily Computed Marginal Likelihoods for Multivariate Mixture Models Using the THAMES Estimator
Martin Metodiev, Nicholas J. Irons, Marie Perrot-Dockès +2
We present a new version of the truncated harmonic mean estimator (THAMES) for univariate or multivariate mixture models. The estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov…
US COVID-19 school closure was not cost-effective, but other measures were
Nicholas J. Irons, Adrian E. Raftery
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a trade-off between the health impacts of viral spread and the social and economic costs o…