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cs.CE2026
Trade-Adaptive Aggregation of Probabilistic Financial Forecasts
Yankai Chen, Rassul Magauin, Bowei He +5
Financial NLP systems produce probabilistic forecasts from news, reports, and filings. Prediction markets can aggregate these forecasts sequentially, but their fees must reward inf…
cs.CE2026
Prediction-Market Seed Capital Recovery from Noise-Dominant Flow
Yankai Chen, Bowei He, Zhuohan Xie +6
Automated prediction markets require sponsors to prefund liquidity before observing order flow, creating a financing challenge at launch. We study whether nonnegative charges condi…