264 citations · 1.6k across the 69 of their papers we have counts for
11 papers · 1 filter
Outbreak-size distributions under fluctuating rates
Jason Hindes, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Ira B. Schwartz +1
We study the effect of noisy infection (contact) and recovery rates on the distribution of outbreak sizes in the stochastic SIR model. The rates are modeled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck p…
Extreme outbreak dynamics in epidemic models
Jason Hindes, Michael Assaf, Ira B. Schwartz
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a populatio…
Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks
Jason Hindes, Simone Bianco, Ira B. Schwartz
Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lock…
Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics
Lee Worden, Ira B. Schwartz, Simone Bianco +3
We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the sub…
Rare Event Extinction on Stochastic Networks
Brandon S. Lindley, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz
We consider the problem of extinction processes on random networks with a given structure. For sufficiently large well-mixed populations, the process of extinction of one or more s…
Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data
Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochas…