7 papers
The adaptive nature of confirmation bias
Dorje C. Brody, Karl J. Friston, Bernhard K. Meister +1
In this paper, the phenomenon generally classified as confirmation bias is formulated on the space of square-root probabilities (or equivalently, using the structures of quantum pr…
Caratheodory II: The Geometry of Financial Irreversibility
Bernhard K Meister
In quantum mechanics and finance, numeraire invariance - the unobservability of absolute phase or price scale - fits with a projective and curved state space. This projective geome…
Market Dynamics of Information Avalanches
Bernhard K Meister
Financial markets convert the incremental arrival of information into asset price changes. In a sandpile model grains of sand represent bits of data, and the size of an avalanche,…
Caratheodory, Finite Resources and the Geometry of Arbitrage
B. K. Meister
Caratheodory's axiom of adiabatic inaccessibility states that, in any neighborhood of a thermodynamic state, certain states remain unreachable via adiabatic processes. Non-arbitrag…
Automated Liquidity: Market Impact, Cycles, and De-pegging Risk
B. K. Meister
Three traits of decentralized finance are studied. First, the market impact function is derived for optimal-growth liquidity providers. For a standard random walk, the classic squa…
Application of the Kelly Criterion to Prediction Markets
Bernhard K Meister
Betting markets are gaining in popularity. Mean beliefs generally differ from prices in prediction markets. Logarithmic utility is employed to study the risk and return adjustments…