75 citations · 99 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for
15 papers
Global reanalysis from observations alone with machine learning
Peter Lean, Ewan Pinnington, Patrick Laloyaux +9
Earth system reanalysis datasets are foundational for weather and climate research and provide the gridded training data used by most machine learning weather prediction systems. H…
AIFS-SUBS: Extending Data-Driven Forecasting to Sub-Seasonal Timescales
Jakob Schloer, Steffen Tietsche, Christopher D. Roberts +6
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors ac…
AIFS-DOP: End-to-End Medium-Range Weather Prediction from Observations Alone with Machine Learning
Ewan Pinnington, Peter Lean, Mihai Alexe +8
We introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System for Direct Observation Prediction (AIFS-DOP). AIFS-DOP is trained on a 40-year harmonized dataset of gridded observation…
Optimal Carbon Prices in an Unequal World: The Role of Regional Welfare Weights
Simon F. Lang
How should nations price carbon? This paper examines how the treatment of global inequality, captured by regional welfare weights, affects optimal carbon prices. I develop theory t…
High-Resolution Probabilistic Data-Driven Weather Modeling with a Stretched-Grid
Even Marius Nordhagen, Håvard Homleid Haugen, Magnus Sikora Ingstad +9
We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model providing ensembles of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary ensemble size and forecast length. The…
Using data assimilation tools to dissect GraphDOP
Patrick Laloyaux, Mihai Alexe, Eulalie Boucher +5
The Data Assimilation (DA) community has been developing various diagnostics to understand the importance of the observing system in accurately forecasting the weather. They usuall…
Learning Coupled Earth System Dynamics with GraphDOP
Eulalie Boucher, Mihai Alexe, Peter Lean +7
Interactions between different components of the Earth System (e.g. ocean, atmosphere, land and cryosphere) are a crucial driver of global weather patterns. Modern Numerical Weathe…
An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS
Gabriel Moldovan, Ewan Pinnington, Ana Prieto Nemesio +18
We present an update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single with several key improvements. The model now incorporates physical consistency constraints thr…
Learning from nature: insights into GraphDOP's representations of the Earth System
Peter Lean, Mihai Alexe, Eulalie Boucher +5
Through a series of experiments, we provide evidence that the GraphDOP model - trained solely on meteorological observations, using no prior knowledge - develops internal represent…
A multi-scale loss formulation for learning a probabilistic model with proper score optimisation
Simon Lang, Martin Leutbecher, Pedro Maciel
We assess the impact of a multi-scale loss formulation for training probabilistic machine-learned weather forecasting models. The multi-scale loss is tested in AIFS-CRPS, a machine…
AIFS-CRPS: Ensemble forecasting using a model trained with a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score
Simon Lang, Mihai Alexe, Mariana C. A. Clare +15
Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as…
GraphDOP: Towards skilful data-driven medium-range weather forecasts learnt and initialised directly from observations
Mihai Alexe, Eulalie Boucher, Peter Lean +11
We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exc…
Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-grid
Thomas Nils Nipen, Håvard Homleid Haugen, Magnus Sikora Ingstad +11
A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a str…
Data driven weather forecasts trained and initialised directly from observations
Anthony McNally, Christian Lessig, Peter Lean +11
Skilful Machine Learned weather forecasts have challenged our approach to numerical weather prediction, demonstrating competitive performance compared to traditional physics-based…
AIFS -- ECMWF's data-driven forecasting system
Simon Lang, Mihai Alexe, Matthew Chantry +13
Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artif…