29 citations · 119 across the 16 of their papers we have counts for
16 papers
Predicting Instabilities in Transient Landforms and Interconnected Ecosystems
Taylor Smith, Andreas Morr, Bodo Bookhagen +1
Many parts of the Earth system are thought to have multiple stable equilibrium states, with the potential for rapid and sometimes catastrophic shifts between them. The most common…
Discontinuous stochastic forcing in Greenland ice core data
Keno Riechers, Andreas Morr, Klaus Lehnertz +4
Paleoclimate proxy records from Greenland ice cores, archiving e.g. O as a proxy for surface temperature, show that sudden climatic shifts called Dansgaard-Oeschger events…
Deep Learning for predicting rate-induced tipping
Yu Huang, Sebastian Bathiany, Peter Ashwin +1
Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slo…
Data-driven Global Ocean Modeling for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction
Zijie Guo, Pumeng Lyu, Fenghua Ling +8
Accurate ocean dynamics modeling is crucial for enhancing understanding of ocean circulation, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Despi…
Fast, Scale-Adaptive, and Uncertainty-Aware Downscaling of Earth System Model Fields with Generative Machine Learning
Philipp Hess, Michael Aich, Baoxiang Pan +1
Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computa…
Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems
Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers, Peter Ashwin
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation becaus…
Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience
Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany +4
The Amazon rainforest (ARF) is threatened by deforestation and climate change, which could trigger a regime shift to a savanna-like state. Previous work suggesting declining resili…
Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances
Vitus Benson, Jonathan F. Donges, Niklas Boers +5
The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience h…
Detection of Approaching Critical Transitions in Natural Systems Driven by Red Noise
Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers
Detection of critical slowing down (CSD) is the dominant avenue for anticipating critical transitions from noisy time-series data. Most commonly, changes in variance and lag-1 auto…
Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data
Maya Ben-Yami, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany +1
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate…
When Geoscience Meets Foundation Models: Towards General Geoscience Artificial Intelligence System
Hao Zhang, Jin-Jian Xu, Hong-Wei Cui +4
Artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly advanced Earth sciences, yet its full potential in to comprehensively modeling Earth's complex dynamics remains unrealized. Geoscienc…
Anticipating critical transitions in multidimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise
Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão +1
Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a…
Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation
Maya Ben-Yami, Vanessa Skiba, Sebastian Bathiany +1
Observations are increasingly used to detect critical slowing down (CSD) to measure stability changes in key Earth system components. However, most datasets have non-stationary mis…
Extreme rainfall propagation within Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation modulated by Pacific sea surface temperature
Felix M. Strnad, Jakob Schloer, Ruth Geen +2
Intraseasonal variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) contain alternating extreme rainfall (active) and low rainfall (break) phases impacting agriculture and economies.…
Deep learning for bias-correcting CMIP6-class Earth system models
Philipp Hess, Stefan Lange, Christof Schötz +1
The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropoge…
Red noise in continuous-time stochastic modelling
Andreas Morr, Dörte Kreher, Niklas Boers
The concept of time-correlated noise is important to applied stochastic modelling. Nevertheless, there is no generally agreed-upon definition of the term red noise in continuous-ti…