2 papers
stat.ME2024
The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a structured expert elicitation
Paola Vesco, David Randahl, Håvard Hegre +2
Event datasets including those provided by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) are based on reports from the media and international organizations, and are likely to suffer from r…
stat.AP2024
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi +37
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated…