9 papers
Fast, Frequentist Estimation of Epidemic Reproduction Numbers
Jeremy Goldwasser, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Alyssa Bilinski
The effective reproduction number is one of the most important indicators of epidemic dynamics. Estimating , typically from case reports or hospitalization counts, poses…
On the Equivalence of Instantaneous and Mechanistic Reproduction Numbers
Jeremy Goldwasser, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Alyssa Bilinski
The effective reproduction number () is widely used to track epidemic dynamics in real time. The standard estimation framework uses "instantaneous ," defined via the rene…
Basic Inequalities for First-Order Optimization with Applications to Statistical Risk Analysis
Seunghoon Paik, Kangjie Zhou, Matus Telgarsky +1
In this work, we introduce for first-order iterative optimization algorithms, forming a simple yet versatile framework which connects implicit and exp…
Calibrated Multi-Level Quantile Forecasting
Tiffany Ding, Isaac Gibbs, Ryan J. Tibshirani
We develop an online method that guarantees calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. In this work, a sequence of quantile forecasts is said to…
Sample-Efficient Omniprediction for Proper Losses
Isaac Gibbs, Ryan J. Tibshirani
We consider the problem of constructing probabilistic predictions that lead to accurate decisions when employed by downstream users to inform actions. For a single decision maker,…
Estimating Time-Varying Epidemic Severity Rates with Adaptive Deconvolution
Jeremy Goldwasser, Addison J. Hu, Alyssa Bilinski +2
Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future.Several key metrics in public health conv…