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math.PR2026

Genealogical processes of sequential Monte Carlo methods and other non-neutral population models under rapid mutation

Jere Koskela, Paul A. Jenkins, Adam M. Johansen +1

We show that genealogical trees arising from a broad class of non-neutral models of population evolution converge to the Kingman coalescent under a suitable rescaling of time. As w…

math.PR2025

A debiased Bernoulli factory and unbiased estimation of a probability

Jere Koskela, Toni Karvonen, Krzysztof Łatuszyński +1

Given a known function and a random but almost surely finite number of independent, Ber-distributed random variables with unknown , w…

math.PR2025

Multi-type -coalescents from structured population models with bottlenecks

Marta Dai Pra, Alison Etheridge, Jere Koskela +1

We introduce an individual-based model for structured populations undergoing demographic bottlenecks, i.e. drastic reductions in population size that last many generations and can…

math.PR2024

Excursion theory for the Wright-Fisher diffusion

Paul A. Jenkins, Jere Koskela, Victor M. Rivero +3

In this work, we develop excursion theory for the Wright--Fisher diffusion with mutation. Our construction is intermediate between the classical excursion theory where all excursio…

math.PR2024

Bernoulli factories and duality in Wright-Fisher and Allen-Cahn models of population genetics

Jere Koskela, Krzysztof Łatuszyński, Dario Spanò

Mathematical models of genetic evolution often come in pairs, connected by a so-called duality relation. The most seminal example are the Wright-Fisher diffusion and the Kingman co…