2 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?
Lucas J. Howard, Elizabeth A. Barnes
Ensemble forecasting aims to sample the conditional distribution of outcomes; whether AI forecast ensembles do this correctly in a joint sense remains largely untested. We train a…
physics.ao-ph2025
Probabilistic Emulation of the Community Radiative Transfer Model Using Machine Learning
Lucas Howard, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Gregory Thompson +2
The continuous improvement in weather forecast skill over the past several decades is largely due to the increasing quantity of available satellite observations and their assimilat…