7 papers
Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting
Benedikt Schulz, Mehrez El Ayari, Sebastian Lerch +1
In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as sola…
Statistical post-processing of heat index ensemble forecasts: is there a royal road?
Sándor Baran, Ágnes Baran, Florian Pappenberger +1
We investigate the effect of statistical post-processing on the probabilistic skill of discomfort index (DI) and indoor wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTid) ensemble forecasts, both…
Statistical post-processing of dual-resolution ensemble forecasts
Sándor Baran, Martin Leutbecher, Marianna Szabó +1
The computational cost as well as the probabilistic skill of ensemble forecasts depends on the spatial resolution of the numerical weather prediction model and the ensemble size. P…
Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of temperature in Santiago de Chile
Mailiu Díaz, Orietta Nicolis, Julio César Marín +1
Currently all major meteorological centres generate ensemble forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems; however, it is a general problem that the spread of the…
Statistical post-processing of hydrological forecasts using Bayesian model averaging
Sándor Baran, Stephan Hemri, Mehrez El Ayari
Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff or water level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state-of-the-art hydro…
On the optimal designs for the prediction of complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes
Kinga Sikolya, Sándor Baran
Physics, chemistry, biology or finance are just some examples out of the many fields where complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes have various applications in statistical modell…