5 papers
LOPMM: A Low-Order Parlay Market Maker
Niusha Moshrefi, Ranvir Rana, Pramod Viswanath
Parlays - joint contracts on the simultaneous resolution of several events - are among the most heavily traded products in betting markets, but prediction markets have struggled to…
Prices, Probabilities, and Parlays: Systematic Bias in Sports Prediction Markets
Niusha Moshrefi
Prediction market prices are routinely interpreted as probabilities, both in academic work and in derivative products built atop these markets. We document two systematic ways this…
ParlayMarket: Automated Market Making for Parlay-style Joint Contracts
Ranvir Rana, Viraj Nadkarni, Niusha Moshrefi +1
Prediction markets are powerful mechanisms for information aggregation, but existing designs are optimized for single-event contracts. Traders frequently express beliefs about join…
OML: A Primitive for Reconciling Open Access with Owner Control in AI Model Distribution
Zerui Cheng, Edoardo Contente, Ben Finch +9
The current paradigm of AI model distribution presents a fundamental dichotomy: models are either closed and API-gated, sacrificing transparency and local execution, or openly dist…
Unconditionally Safe Light Client
Niusha Moshrefi, Peiyao Sheng, Soubhik Deb +2
Blockchain applications often rely on lightweight clients to access and verify on-chain data efficiently without the need to run a resource-intensive full node. These light clients…