3 papers
stat.ME2026
Assessing Monotone Dependence: Area Under the Curve Meets Rank Correlation
Eva-Maria Walz, Andreas Eberl, Tilmann Gneiting
The assessment of monotone dependence between random variables is a classical problem in statistics and a gamut of application domains. Consequently, researchers have sought measur…
stat.AP2026
Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts -- An application to Italy
Jonas R. Brehmer, Kristof Kraus, Tilmann Gneiting +2
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phas…
stat.AP2025
Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output
Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus +3
We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction…