182 citations · 375 across the 26 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events
Daniel M. Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E. Abbas +26
Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we deve…
Perceptions of Linguistic Uncertainty by Language Models and Humans
Catarina G Belem, Markelle Kelly, Mark Steyvers +2
_Uncertainty expressions_ such as "probably" or "highly unlikely" are pervasive in human language. While prior work has established that there is population-level agreement in term…
What Large Language Models Know and What People Think They Know
Mark Steyvers, Heliodoro Tejeda, Aakriti Kumar +5
As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their output…