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The Surprising Benefits of Base Rate Neglect in Robust Aggregation
Yuqing Kong, Shu Wang, Ying Wang
Robust aggregation integrates predictions from multiple experts without knowledge of the experts' information structures. Prior work assumes experts are Bayesian, providing predict…
Robust Decision Aggregation with Adversarial Experts
Yongkang Guo, Yuqing Kong
We consider a robust aggregation problem in the presence of both truthful and adversarial experts. The truthful experts will report their private signals truthfully, while the adve…
Peer Expectation in Robust Forecast Aggregation: The Possibility/Impossibility
Yuqing Kong
Recently a growing literature study a new forecast aggregation setting where each forecaster is additionally asked ``what's your expectation for the average of other forecasters' f…
Algorithmic Robust Forecast Aggregation
Yongkang Guo, Jason D. Hartline, Zhihuan Huang +3
Forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple forecasters to improve accuracy. However, the lack of knowledge about forecasters' information structure hinders optimal a…