4 papers
Statistical warning indicators for abrupt transitions in dynamical systems with slow periodic forcing
Florian Suerhoff, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany +2
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bi…
Critical Slowing Down in Bifurcating Stochastic Partial Differential Equations with Red Noise
Paolo Bernuzzi, Christian Kuehn, Andreas Morr
The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) has played a key role in the search for reliable precursors of catastrophic regime shifts. This is caused by its presence in a generic…
Probability of Transition to Turbulence in a Reduced Stochastic Model of Pipe Flow
Paolo Bernuzzi, Christian Kuehn
We study the phenomenon of turbulence initiation in pipe flow under different noise structures by estimating the probability of initiating metastable transitions. We establish lowe…
Early warning signs of critical transitions -- The -stable case
Lucia S. Layritz, Ilya Pavlyukevich, Anja Rammig +1
Statistical early warning signs can be used to identify an approaching bifurcation in stochastic dynamical systems and are now regularly employed in applications concerned with the…