3 papers
stat.ML2026
Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps
Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. Lee
Machine learning forecast systems are moving beyond point predictions to full predictive distributions for future outcomes y conditional on complex inputs x. However, these distrib…
eess.IV2025
Multi-Resolution Analysis of the Convective Structure of Tropical Cyclones for Short-Term Intensity Guidance
Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Tria McNeely, Kimberly Wood +1
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) short-term intensity forecasting with a 24-hour lead time is essential for disaster mitigation in the Atlantic TC basin. Since most TCs evolve far fr…
stat.ML2025
Towards Instance-Wise Calibration: Local Amortized Diagnostics and Reshaping of Conditional Densities (LADaR)
Biprateep Dey, David Zhao, Brett H. Andrews +3
Key science questions, such as galaxy distance estimation and weather forecasting, often require knowing the full predictive distribution of a target variable given complex inp…