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econ.EM2026
MACROCAST: A Vintage-Consistent Time Series Foundation Model for Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting
Andrea Carriero, Davide Pettenuzzo, Shubhranshu Shekhar
We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting. Existing TSFMs suffer from data leakage in two forms: temporal co…
econ.EM2025
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models
Andrea Carriero, Davide Pettenuzzo, Shubhranshu Shekhar
This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LL…
econ.EM2024
Conditional Forecasts in Large Bayesian VARs with Multiple Equality and Inequality Constraints
Joshua C. C. Chan, Davide Pettenuzzo, Aubrey Poon +1
Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number o…