3 papers
stat.AP2025
Improved Disease Outbreak Detection from Out-of-sequence measurements Using Markov-switching Fixed-lag Particle Filters
Conor Rosato, Joshua Murphy, Siân E. Jenkins +7
Particle filters (PFs) have become an essential tool for disease surveillance, as they can estimate hidden epidemic states in nonlinear and non-Gaussian models. In epidemic modelli…
q-bio.PE2025
Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on Rotavirus Transmission Dynamics Using Bayesian Inference
Conor Rosato, Joshua Murphy, Simon Maskell +1
The introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013 led to a noticeable decline in laboratory reports in subsequent years. To assess the impact of vaccinat…
stat.ML2025
Humble your Overconfident Networks: Unlearning Overfitting via Sequential Monte Carlo Tempered Deep Ensembles
Andrew Millard, Zheng Zhao, Joshua Murphy +1
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluation…