6 papers
CRPS-LAM: Probabilistic Regional Weather Forecasting with Continuous Ranked Probability Score
Erik Larsson, Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius +1
Limited-Area Models (LAMs) enable weather forecasting over regional domains at higher resolutions than what is computationally feasible for global models. At such high resolutions,…
DAISI: Data Assimilation with Inverse Sampling using Stochastic Interpolants
Martin Andrae, Erik Wikingsson, So Takao +2
Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. C…
Building Machine Learning Limited Area Models: Kilometer-Scale Weather Forecasting in Realistic Settings
Simon Adamov, Joel Oskarsson, Leif Denby +8
Machine learning is revolutionizing global weather forecasting, with models that efficiently produce highly accurate forecasts. Apart from global forecasting there is also a large…
Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion models
Martin Andrae, Tomas Landelius, Joel Oskarsson +1
Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent w…
Diffusion-LAM: Probabilistic Limited Area Weather Forecasting with Diffusion
Erik Larsson, Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius +1
Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts prim…
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks
Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius, Marc Peter Deisenroth +1
In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on determinist…