8 papers
Adaptive Cumulative Mass Calibration with Conformal Prediction
Daniil Kazantsev, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov +2
Reliable probability estimates by classifiers are essential in high-risk applications. In practice, however, predicted probabilities are often miscalibrated, and many existing post…
Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent
Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27
LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to co…
ReDAct: Uncertainty-Aware Deferral for LLM Agents
Dzianis Piatrashyn, Nikita Kotelevskii, Kirill Grishchenkov +7
Recently, LLM-based agents have become increasingly popular across many applications, including complex sequential decision-making problems. However, they inherit the tendency of L…
Who to Trust? Aggregating Client Predictions in Federated Distillation
Viktor Kovalchuk, Denis Son, Arman Bolatov +6
Under data heterogeneity (e.g., ), clients may produce unreliable predictions for instances belonging to unfamiliar classes. An equally weighted combinatio…
Uncertainty Quantification for Regression using Proper Scoring Rules
Alexander Fishkov, Kajetan Schweighofer, Mykyta Ielanskyi +3
Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantific…
Neural Optimal Transport Meets Multivariate Conformal Prediction
Vladimir Kondratyev, Alexander Fishkov, Nikita Kotelevskii +4
We propose a framework for conditional vector quantile regression (CVQR) that combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization, and apply it to multivariate conformal…